APC To Assume House Leadership

There are strong indications that the All Progressives Congress, APC, may, on resumption from recess of the House of Representatives on January 13, 2014, assume the leadership of the House from the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

This, however, may not affect the offices of the speaker and deputy speaker respectively.

The impending development is followed by the defection of 37 members of the PDP to APC late last month.

Speculations had been rife since December 2013, shortly before the House went on Christmas break, that the change would have occurred.

A member of the House and PDP decampee said the first quarter of the new year would herald changes that would affect the leadership structure of the House.

He said: "Within the House, 2014 will be a remarkable year for Nigeria, remarkable in the sense that, of course, the trend which began in late 2013 in terms of power shift will continue and what that means is that APC should be able to get the requisite 181 members which gives it complete majority. When that happens chances are that the leadership will shift from PDP to APC.

"APC has between 172 to 174 members in the House. And what we just need, I think is between 8 and 9 new members in terms of those crossing from PDP to APC. And that will be the APC requisite that will shape the House and points the future direction of the House.

"But what is certain is that if everything does not change, the leadership, the majority leader will need to relinquish that position because at the end of the day, a party cannot be in the minority and still hold the position of the Majority Leader."

2015 ELECTIONS: SEE How Goodluck Jonathan Plans To Win

Plans by close aides of President Goodluck Jonathan to win re-election include exploiting division in the ranks of the nation's governors, playing on the political ambitions of some Northern power brokers and the promotion of a clash of egos between the leaders of All Progressives Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd.)

The plans, believed to have been prepared by close aides of the President ahead of the 2015 election, identified the House of Representatives, which the strategists claim to have become the mouthpiece of the opposition, the President's ineffective utilisation of his powers and the dominance of ethnic jingoists around President Jonathan as some of the major weaknesses for the president's second term campaign.

The strategists also cited APC, if it does not implode, the Nigerian Governors' Forum, the Northern States Governors Forum, regional alliances, especially in the North, as some serious threats to the President in having a smooth return to power.

The strategy document, entitled 2013-2015: Political power and governance road map, believed to have been prepared in the last quarter of last year and had been the subject of speculation, came to light yesterday when it was published by Premium Times, an online news platform.

The crux of the strategy is a SWOT analysis which underpinned the President's Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats in the run up to the decisive election.

In the SWOT analysis, reproduced by Premium Times, the President's handlers also cited the strengths of the President to include the power of incumbency, access to secure cash, the backing of a formidable political structure, among others.

The document was produced after the split of PDP, but before the exit of five governors, who recently left the party for APC.

Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Communications, Dr. Doyin Okupe, said he was on holiday yesterday, but claimed that "if the President has a plan to win the 2015 elections, I can assure you that it can never be found in Premium Times."
The SWOT analysis read in part Strengths:

Power of incumbency and utilisation of governance machinery, especially the careful and legal deployment of its propaganda and coercive apparatus; secure financial resources base and leveraging on strategic media assets.
Others are formidable political apparatus-a reformed, disciplined and tightly controlled PDP- with significant presence in all the 36 states and dominant control over 23 states;

Deep-rooted, nation-wide support structures in the shape of Goodluck Support Group and literally speaking, hundreds of youths, women and regional affiliates controlled and supervised by the more dominant support structures;

Effective and efficient implementation of the transformation agenda in critical national sectors; high personal likeability rating, which has to be further strengthened and deepened;

When the chips are down, immense support will be secured from the National Council of State by ex-leaders who value continuity and order over instability and chaos.

Weaknesses

•A less than forceful Presidential presence and infective deployment and application of presidential power
The perceived appropriation of presidential advocacy space by exuberant partisans and fanatical supporters who project a wrong image of the presidency as a regional agenda. This situation tends to alienate moderate political forces across the country whose sense of co-ownership of the presidency appears diminished

•A perceived sense of distance between the Presidency and the PDP that has opened the space for internal dissention and outright rebellion by party stalwarts. This sense of disinterest and disengagement has engendered a culture of apology among Presidential spokespersons whenever matters connecting Mr President and the party appear on the public sphere

•Following on the above, the reality of Mr President being the leaders of the nation and the LEADER OF THE PARTY is not sufficiently grounded

•A technocratic cabinet that is not fully politically engaged, especially in media advocacy and community-wide outreach programmes. This unhelpful situation out burdens a handful regime insiders in their constant defense of The Presidency and the Transformation agenda

•A presidential communication strategy that is weak on proactive propaganda and rapid response

•Inability of Presidential power strategists to manage the relationship between The Presidency and the NASS to the degree that the later, particularly the HOR, which is dominated by the PDP, appears as an outfit and mouthpiece of the opposition

•Problematic relationship between the Presidency and some former heads of State when, in actuality, they should constitute the bedrock of his support
Opportunities

•Exploiting the current fractured state of the NGF for maximum political advantage by strengthening the co-operative faction and sustaining the pressure on recalcitrant PDP governors

•Exploiting the opportunities inherent in the putative fracturing of the Northern Governors' Forum by strengthening co-operative governors and sustaining pressure, directly and through different front organizations, on the recalcitrant governors

•Playing on the political ambitions of regional champions, especially in the North, to the degree and extent that no unanimity of political purpose and cohesive agenda is ever achieved

•The APC may appear as a formidable threat initially but substantive opportunities will abound when ambitions and egos clash among its principal promoters. Strategic planning should factor in the scenario in the designing of intervention blueprint

•Exploiting the immense public opinion opportunities in the current war against terror in the North, especially given the steady successes thus far recorded by the NSA, and the military high command through the JTF

•Utilizing the social and economic empowering and inclusive space provided by SURE-P, particularly its integrated community empowerment schemes, to advertise and show case the populist and pro-people orientation of the government
Threats.
There are sufficient grounds to believe that the NASS continues to pose a threat to the effective exercise of Presidential power in the areas of budget-making processes and the on-going amendments of the constitution with specific reference to devolution of power and tenure of elected officials.

"I Created 1.6 Million Jobs In 2013" - President Jonathan

In what appears to be an election campaign statement to rebut those who say his government has failed, President Jonathan has in a New Year message to Nigerians rolled out a list of his "achievements" in the past year.

Among them, he claimed his government may have been responsible for an astounding 1.6 million jobs in 2013 alone, but did not clarify where the jobs were filled.

"Our national budget for 2014 which is now before the National Assembly is specifically targeted at job creation and inclusive growth," he said.

"We are keenly aware that in spite of the estimated 1.6 million new jobs created across the country in the past 12 months as a result of our actions and policies, more jobs are still needed to support our growing population. Our economic priorities will be stability and equitable growth, building on the diverse sectors of our economy."

Mr. Jonathan did not say anything about the challenge of leading by example, and only referred to corruption and bad governance, which his critics claim he is nurturing in the country, in passing.

"I urge all Nigerians, no matter their stations in life, to rededicate themselves to contributing meaningfully to further enrich our national heritage.The time for that re-dedication is now, not tomorrow," he said, referring to the 2014 being Nigeria's centenary year.

Femi Fani Kayode Opens Up On Obasanjo's Plans To Unseat President Goodluck Jonathan

Former Nigerian Aviation Minister Femi Fani Kayode says it is former president Olusegun Obasanjo's responsibility to help rid the country of President Goodluck Jonathan since he imposed him on the Nigerian people.

He said this in defense of the former president's open letter to the president. "He more than anybody else has the responsibility- if he doesn't want to be judged harshly by history to ensure that Goodluck Jonathan does not come back in 2015", he said.

Speaking on Sahara TV Mr. Kayode was full of praise for Former President Obasanjo calling his action courageous. "This is a man I've known for the past 11 years. He is not the type of man that will say something that he doesn't mean". Mr. Kayode said he believes the letter was written out of deep concern for the country.

On the alleged 1000-man hit list referred to in the letter, Mr. Kayode said he believes Mr. Obasanjo speaks with conviction and that the government has been challenged in the letter to deny the allegation.

Mr. Kayode who describes himself as a close associate of the former president however opted not to comment on a letter that made the rounds after the fabled letter purported to be written by Obasanjo's estranged daughter Iyabo Obasanjo. "These are personal issues which do not in any way concern me", he said.

Mr. Kayode said Mr. Obasanjo is father of the nation and has stood up to speak in crucial times when nobody had the temerity to do so. He debunked any suggestion that Mr. Obasanjo was considering unseating President Jonathan saying the former President is totally committed to democracy. He said Obasanjo's aim is to protect democracy by ensuring that the president acts in a "sensible democratic manner".

Speaking on another letter written by Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi, Mr. Kayode commended the governor for exposing the rot. In the letter, Mr. Sanusi claimed that about $49 billion which was supposed to be deposited with the bank has not reached the exchequer. He however suggested that Sanusi should have resigned his position as a matter of principle.

He also said that the APC's bid to unseat the Jonathan government should include an alliance with power brokers like Obasanjo.

"You cannot be serious about winning power in Nigeria without talking to an Obasanjo or a Babangida or all these people", he said. He also said PDP is likely to rig the Osun and Ekiti State as well as the 2015 federal elections but If that happens people are likely to take matters into their own hands.

Reverend Father Warns Jonathan, Obasanjo

The Chairman and Spiritual Father of the Cherubim and Seraphim Movement Church Worldwide (Ayo Ni O), Most Rev. Samuel Abidoye has advised former President Olusegun Obasanjo and President Goodluck Jonathan, to demonstrate maturity in their handling of political differences between them.

The cleric in his New Year message to the members of the CSMC Worldwide made available to newsmen, in Abeokuta, yesterday, also warned the Federal Government to avoid grandstanding about fighting corruption this year.

Apparently referring to the recent spat between former President Obasanjo and President Jonathan, he cautioned that the nation's leaders should avoid "dancing naked in the market place.

"He stressed that it was needless for the nation's leaders to wash their dirty linen in public because of some differences between them.

"In terms of governance in general, there needs to be a display of more maturity by our leaders, both in and out of government. Dancing naked in the market place just to prove what one can do so is going too far.

"A leader is expected to exhibit decorum and behave with certain dignity that will make people to respect them," the cleric said.

"You Are A Failure" - Junaid Attacks Jonathan

In his usual critical stance on issues of governance in Nigeria, Second Republic member of the House of Representatives, Dr. Junaid Mohammed, has again declared President Goodluck Jonathan a failure.

He also said the President should jettison the idea of rigging the 2015 elections to favour himself, warning that there will be mayhem, if there was rigging.

Mohammed in an interview on Tuesday, said President Jonathan had failed in every critical area of governance, such as security, law and order which could win him a second term, saying he would be disgraced at the polls should he dare contest the election.

Mohammed, who is also a leading member of the Northern Elders Forum, said the north would not cast its vote for Jonathan.

He said: "I am not and I have never been a member of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. And I have never been a governor and I don't think I will be a governor in this world. But what I am saying is this: in a democracy, there is what we call performance legitimacy.

"That is if you are elected into a position of authority or power, your legitimacy does not only rest on your winning the election, but also in performing on the job so that people will say you have done well and may be in the mood to give you another term.

"As far as I am concerned, Jonathan did not win the last election. Goodluck has not performed in any manner credible that will warrant his being re-elected or think of being considered for re-election.

"Now, whether there was an agreement or not, the fact of the matter is that he has failed in very critical areas of governance. He has failed in security. He has failed in law and order. He has failed in economy. He has failed in everything that matters to a government and to the people of a country.

"Now, for me, he should not consider running but if he is determined to run and rig the election the way he did in 2011 together with INEC and security services, then he is asking for mayhem in the country and I have said it several times, if he insists on running and rigging the election, there will be mayhem.

"Now, many media people have chosen to ignore the aspect where I said if he runs and rigs the election. Let me tell you, I have been in politics for over 40 years.

"If he can decide today that there is going to be free and fair election by INEC in conjunction with the Police, the DSS, then my reaction will be let Goodluck stand for election, we will go there vote and defeat and disgrace him. But the fact of the matter is that people are very wary about the way elections have been conducted in the history of this country."

Oduahgate: Jonathan Must Take Action – Reps Insist

Hon. Nkeiruka Onyejeocha, the Chairperson of the House of Representatives Committee on Aviation, has called on the Executive arm of government to fulfil its obligation to implement the recommendations presented to it in its investigation of the N255 million BMW scandal that rocked the Aviation Ministry in the fourth quarter of the year 2013.

Hon. Onyejeocha declared this in her home town Isiochi, Abia State, during a visit to her constituency.

The Committee's Chairperson said that the Reps had completed their job by investigating the scandal and forwarding their recommendations to the Executive arm.

However, she noted that the lawmakers were not empowered to go beyond that.

According to Hon. Onyejeocha, the provisions of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria should be respected and applied.

"All of us worked to protect the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, so whether you are an executive person or you are a parliamentarian or in the judiciary, the Constitution is the primary thing you need to protect.

"Why can't we say the truth, we need to say the truth no matter who is involved. For me the primary responsibility of any legislator in Nigeria is to God after here what do you tell your creator and so once you have that at the back of your mind you do your work," she added.

On what happens to the report submitted and the recommendations made by the House as it concerns the N255 million bullet proof cars, she said that the committee has done the work assigned to it and the House work stops there.

"Our work ended with the submission at the floor of the House and that the House had made its own recommendations. It is not our business what happens after we have finished our own work. It is left for the executive to do their own and off course what the constitution empowers us to do is to investigate the supposed corruption, it is not our duty to implement there is no way any lawmaker would implement," she said.

It would be recalled that the Reps have recommended the review of Stella Oduah's appointment for contravening the Appropriation Act. They also recommended a refund by Coscharis on the customs waiver utilised by it.